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Use of Decision Analysis in Arson Program Planning
Författare
Stiefel S W
Utgivare
US Department of Commerce
Utgivningsår
1982-11
A decision analysis approach is formulated and demonstrated to provide a planning tool for decision makers in a city or community concerned with selection and application of arson strategies. The Arson Information Management System (AIMS) is used to provide information to describe the arson problem (classify causes/motivation, incidence and magnitude for each area in the city community) and to establish which strategies are appropriate to address the causes. This AIMS data plus an assessment of the cost and effectiveness of arson strategies are combined in a decision analysis framework. The framework specifies data requirements and provides a data analysis structure. The decision analysis has been designed to provide a measure of the net benefits for various strategies for each area in the city/community. A method for using the outputs from the decision analysis to provide the most cost-effective use of an arson budget has been developed.